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NEWBUILDING orders in China will fall 60 per cent in 2009 as prices drop 30 per cent from their 2010 high, says Beijing's China Shipbuilding Economy Research Centre's chief analyst Bao Zhangjing.
Mr Bao told the Asia Ship Finance and Leasing Forum in Shanghai that he saw a modest recovery in 2011 when shipyards would start to reload capacity, but said that would not start before 2012 when orders returned to a 100 million deadweight ton level. "Owners will not order as long as they believe prices will fall further," he said, adding that orders have already dropped 14 million tons in August to less than 1 million in November, and will again drop 60 per cent next year from this year's 150 million tons. He expected a continued decline in 2010 to 50 million tons.
Mr Bao told the Asia Ship Finance and Leasing Forum in Shanghai that he saw a modest recovery in 2011 when shipyards would start to reload capacity, but said that would not start before 2012 when orders returned to a 100 million deadweight ton level. "Owners will not order as long as they believe prices will fall further," he said, adding that orders have already dropped 14 million tons in August to less than 1 million in November, and will again drop 60 per cent next year from this year's 150 million tons. He expected a continued decline in 2010 to 50 million tons.
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